Methodology
GLOBIO relates thousands of scientific studies on environmental impacts to risk on ecosystems by the use of different buffer zones from infrastructure. By linking risk of impact to human expansions in different ecosystems and regions with satellite imagery, available resources and infrastructure, overviews of the past, the current and the possible future with continued growth in infrastructure can be derived.
Global Biodiversity Model (GBM)
The partners in the GLOBIO consortium are working on integrating the GLOBIO2 methodology in a greater framework for biodiversity scenarios.
The model will be developed to support policy makers in a supranational setting (CBD, OECD, EU etc.). The model framework is a tool for assessing effects of environmental and habitat changes on biodiversity and can also be used for evaluating possible policy strategies.
The aim is to produce a fully integrated, dynamic model that will enable the impacts of different forms of environmental change on biodiversity to be evaluated. The model will be spatially explicit, enabling full integration with GIS data and production of map-based outputs. The model will incorporate a range of different causes of environmental change (e.g. climate change, land cover change, fire, infrastructural development, etc.), enabling interactions to be explored. Impacts on biodiversity will be evaluated by integrating spatial data on pressures with the global biodiversity data assembled by UNEP WCMC and other partners. Data on response measures (such as protected areas) will also be incorporated, offering the possibility of analysing the potential impacts of environmental change on these measures.
Read more in the GBM concept document
Infrastructure as an indicator
Infrastructure is the early footprint of human expansions. It can even be seen from space, and is essential to human development in regions of the world with both low and high population. The human enterprise rely on many goods and services from nature to sustain the entire demand for food, fuels, water, medicine, fibre and electricity. Infrastructure, such as roads, dams and utilities, is the central nervous system of the modern world, and is necessary for accessing, developing and transporting many of these goods and services. Infrastructure is considered essential to economic and social development. However, while infrastructure is continuously being developed to support the human enterprise, it may in fact weaken long-term sustainable development by propagating many unintended secondary more uncontrolled environmental impacts through bit-by-bit development of resources essential to mankind in the long-term. Hence, infrastructure and its associated human activity, with its benefits and costs, is the clearest foot print of all human activity.
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Infrastructure development, such as roads and dams, is identified as essential for resource development to support the human enterprise. GLOBIO uses buffer zones/infrastructure density to estimate the human pressure on ecosystems. The extent of the buffer zones are estimated using regression analyses and ecosystem sensitivity by linking probability of reduced abundance of wildlife to land degradation and distance to infrastructure.
Outputs
GLOBIO is intended to provide maps, statistics and scenarios of the extent and changes in 1) land areas directly urbanized; 2) Land areas directly converted; 3) Land areas that are fragmented and under conversion; and 4) Land areas that are still relatively intact ecosystems. The impact zones are derived my a synthesis of hundreds of studies and adjusted according to geographical region, land cover, and climate. While many indices and tools, such as satellite mapping has been readily available, no simple tool has been available to effectively and visually communicate the cumulative impacts of human expansions on biodiversity and ecosystems.
Modelling the future
The scenario technique is based on increasing the coverage of impact zones using regression analysis based on historic or predicted rates of growth in infrastructure. The assumption is that in most areas, infrastructure occurs in clusters, that gradually expand away from existing infrastructure, with the highest density of roads in urbanized areas and the lowest density at the perimeter. For local/regional analysis in pure wilderness areas a more advanced projection method is suggested where terrain structure, distance to other infrastructure and resource availability is considered. Rate of growth is adjusted according to GEO-region (mitigation/environmental standards), vegetation types (i.e. deserts versus forests), availability of mineral deposits, petroleum reserves, timber and present infrastructure network. In addition, several scenarios based upon reduced, as-is and increased growth rates are made.
Data Sources
DCW (VMAP level 0)
The DCW is a digital cartographic database based on the United States Operational Navigational Chart Series (ONC), scale 1:1,000,000. It was derived from flight charts made for aerial navigation. The data were collected between 1968 - 1989. The DCW were released by the DMA US Defence Mapping Agency in 1992.
Find out more on the US NIMA (National Imagery and Mapping Agency) website, or on the NIMA GeoEngine site.
VMAP level 1
The VMAP level 1 is a higher resolution global database, that has been executed through participating regional agencies around the world. The global dataset is under development. This dataset has not been used in any GLOBIO analysis so far, but it is under investigation for analysis applications
Find out more on the US NIMA (National Imagery and Mapping Agency) website, or on the NIMA GeoEngine site.
Global Land Cover Characterization (GLCC)
To perform classifications of impact depending on different forms of vegetation, terrain and ecosystems, the GLCC database was used. This is a global map dataset, created from satellite imagery. For the regional analyses performed in November 2001, the version 2 of the database, using the USGS legend, was used. The USGS legend was further collapsed into aggregated classes for the analysis.
Find out more on the GLCC homepage
Feature Classifications
Roads
Highways, primary and secondary roads, tracks, trails and foothpaths.
Railways
All railways above ground, including those under construction or abandoned.
Settlements
Populated areas, ranging from cities to small villages or groups of houses.
Utilities
Power transmission lines, telephone and telegraph lines, over- and underground pipelines are included if they are considered as important landscape features.
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