Svein Tveitdal of GRID-Arendal, UNEP's key
Arctic centre which has compiled the new report, said:" In
the last part of the 20th century, the Arctic has been increasingly
exposed to industrial exploration and exploitation as well as to
a growth in tourism. The growth in oil, gas and mineral extraction,
transportation networks and non-indigenous settlements are increasingly
affecting wildlife and the welfare of indigenous people. Various
plans are under way to extend the infrastructure and development
into new regions such as the Yamal Peninsula of Russia, the Arctic
National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska and the Barents Sea region".
Plans are also well advanced to open up
a vast new seaway around the roof of the world. The Northern Sea
Route, a 5,600 km stretch of water running from the Barents Sea
in the west to the Bering Strait in the east, could significantly
reduce the sailing time from Europe, Scandinavia and Russia to the
Far East.
However, experts are concerned that the
development of the route is primarily intended to exploit the rich
oil, gas and mineral resources of Siberia. The start of just part
of the route will result in a previously unknown level of industrialization
of Siberia. This will add to pressures on the Arctic generally as
a result of a sharp rise in the number of ships operating in the
region, port and road developments and improved access to new oil,
gas and mineral fields.
"Infrastructure brings primary industrial
development but also secondary, more uncontrolled development, in
terms of increased human immigration and settlements. These in turn
increase the risks of deforestation, overgrazing, social conflicts,
pollution of water, land degradation and fragmentation of habitats.
Our findings show that even with stable rates of industrial growth,
mirroring those that have occurred in the latter part of the last
century, an estimated 50 per cent to 80 per cent of the Arctic will
reach critical levels of human-induced disturbance by 2050,"
said Mr Tveitdal.
The report estimates significant human disturbance
even at lower growth rates of infrastructure. It concludes that
40 per cent of the region's wildlife and ecosystems will be critically
disturbed by 2050 if growth occurs at half or 50 per cent of levels
seen since the period 1940 to 1990.
If infrastructure growth accelerates, doubling
or increasing by 200 per cent over the same period, 90 per cent
of the Arctic will suffer significant human-induced disturbance
by 2050.
Mark Collins of UNEP's World Conservation
Monitoring Centre in Cambridge, England, said that vast tracts of
the Arctic are designated as protected areas.
"However, many key ecosystems are poorly
protected, particularly in the southern part of the Arctic, where
most of the development is happening," he said.
The findings have come from a pilot of study
of UNEP's Global methodology for mapping human impacts on the Biosphere
(GLOBIO) which for the first time looks at the cumulative impacts
of human activities on the environment.
Previous work in this area has detailed
the impact on habitats, ecosystems and wildlife close to a development.
But this new study draws on the conclusions of some 200 scientific
studies from around the globe.
These are shedding new light on how human
activities not only affect the environment close by but trigger
significant changes and disturbances considerable distances away
from a road, settlement, mine or other infrastructure development.
Some of the impacts are immediate whereas others are cumulative,
gradually undermining the ecosystems upon which humans and wildlife
depend for food, water and shelter. The pilot study has focused
on the Arctic. UNEP plans to extend GLOBIO to cover human impacts
across the globe. Preliminary assessments have already been made
of the Himalayas and the Amazon.
Wildlife
Studies of more than 100 species show that some Arctic animals will
suffer more than others as the region becomes more industrialized.
"Animals avoid areas near infrastructure, breeding success
decreases in developed areas and habitats become fragmented. The
ecological impacts of losses of habitats and redistribution of animals
away from development may also substantially affect foraging success
or survival in areas beyond these initial zones of disturbance and
hence result in overgrazing, erosion and reduced breeding success,"
the GLOBIO report says.
It shows that Arctic roads quickly reduce
the abundance of reindeer and caribou five kilometres from the highway;
the populations of large predators such as wolves and bears are
affected two kilometres from the development and birds one kilometres
from the infrastructure.
"Sensitivity is particularly high in
the Arctic. Reindeer and caribou are among the most sensitive species
in the Arctic to human activity, often reducing the use of grazing
grounds by 50 per cent to 90 per cent within four to 10km of roads,
power lines or resorts. Large Arctic carnivores abandon areas when
road densities reach typically around 0.5 to 0.6 km/km squared,"
says the report.
The report says Arctic birds suffer when
development leads to drainage of wetlands. They also suffer from
traffic noise as a result of the building of new roads. Studies
indicate that a variety of bird populations can fall by as much
as 44 per cent up to 1.5km from a new road.
The cumulative impacts of the kind of piecemeal
development now taking place in the Arctic is having even wider
impacts on the region's ecosystems as result of longer term changes
in features such as hydrology, pollution levels and the condition
of the permafrost and tundra, the report concludes.
A new road may affect the abundance of wildlife
up to five kilometres away, but the cumulative impacts on their
ecosystems can be detected up to 20km away, the UNEP scientists
estimate.
The cumulative impacts of power lines and
pipelines can spread up to 16km away from where they are physically
located. The ecological "footprint" of human settlements,
including cities, towns and mining or oil exploration camps, can
disturb ecosystems up to 40km away.
Dr. Christian Nellemann from the Norwegian
Institute of Nature Research, who coordinated this UNEP project
together with Lars Kullerud from GRID-Arendal, said there were likely
to be winners as well as losers among the Arctic's wildlife with
animals adapted to scavenge benefiting at the expense of those with
more specialized life styles.
"By 2050 we can foresee less migratory
birds and mammals like Arctic foxes and reindeer but more gulls,
red foxes, and crows. Basically human kind's interference in the
delicate, ecological, balance of the Arctic will allow the scavengers
and marauders to take over the scene at the expense of more specialized
birds and mammals, which will decline and even, in some cases, disappear.
When you develop new infrastructure such as a road you trigger a
whole chain reaction," he said.
Vegetation and Plant Life
Powerlines and pipelines have relatively little short term impact
on Arctic vegetation. Changes in snow cover and minor disturbances
in soils normally only occur up to 500 metros from such structures.
Cumulative, longer term, impacts are likely
to be felt further afield. Disturbance to vegetation from power
line and pipelines may affect ecosystems up to two kilometers from
such infrastructures as a result of changes in the permafrost and
damage from off-road vehicles used to service and maintain such
structures.
The cumulative impacts on vegetation of
a road can be detected up to 10km away by changes to the sensitive
permafrost and water discharge, by bringing in hunters or logging
companies in forested areas.. Human settlements can impact the vegetation
of local ecosystems up to 30km away, the report says.
Indigenous people
Many different groups of indigenous people, including the Saami,
Nenets, Komi and Chukchi of Eurasia and the Dogrib, Cree, Innu and
Yupiit of North America, rely on hunting and herding of reindeer
and caribou.
Such peoples have, over thousands of years,
developed social networks, traditions and cultural life-styles based
on the movements of these animals.
But the GLOBIO report warns that the industrialization
of the Arctic threatens the traditional existence of many indigenous
peoples.
"Northern Scandinavia and parts of
Russia are example of areas where the current growth of infrastructure
related to transportation, oil, gas and mineral extraction is increasingly
incompatible with land requirements for reindeer husbandry. In these
areas infrastructure growth is associated with the loss of traditional
lands and conditions forcing indigenous people to abandon nomadic
herding patterns for more sedentary life styles," it states.
Future industrialization is likely to affect the lives and cultures
of indigenous peoples in Alaska, Canada and Greenland as many of
their traditional foods and activities gradually disappear.
Dr. Nellemann said. "This first report
is on the Arctic but our work is proceeding to map and assess human
impacts on a global level. All the environmental problems we are
grappling with today - health, pollution, resource conflicts and
land and water degradation - is the result of heavy impacts on less
than 20 per cent of the Earth's land area. Imagine the scale of
environmental problems globally when we reach a 50 to 80 per cent
level of impact in less than 100 years".
He added:" GLOBIO is not science fiction
or doomsday predictions. It allows us to chronicle with far greater
accuracy land and water degradation processes that have resulted
from the human expansions of the last 50 years. We hope GLOBIO will
open the eyes of public and the state leaders around the world,
alerting them to the consequences of the choices that we are making
today"
Notes To Editors:
The meeting, "Ten Years of Arctic Environmental Cooperation",
opens at Rovaniemi City Hall, Finland, on 11 June, 2001. It will
be attended by Ministers from the Arctic Council member countries,
indigenous leaders and international agencies and NGOs. The council
was founded in 1996. Its member governments are Canada, Denmark/Greenland,
Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden and the
United States.
A message, concerning sustainable development
in the Arctic, is expected to be issued from the meeting as part
of the world-wide preparations for the World Summit on Sustainable
Development (Rio + Ten) taking place in Johannesburg, South Africa,
next year.
The Global Methodology for Mapping Human
Impacts on the Biosphere (GLOBIO) gives a scientific overview of
the cumulative impacts of human activities on the environment.
The pilot GLOBIO report on the Arctic has
mapped the impacts of current human disturbance on the region. The
impact, by 2050, as a result of three growth scenarios have also
been mapped. These are a stable or 100 per cent infrastructure growth
rate reflecting the growth seen between 1940 and 1990 extrapolated
out to 2050; a reduced growth rate of 50 per cent and an accelerated
growth rate of 200 per cent. The methodology and conclusions have
been subject to scientific peer review. The reviews are attached
to the report
The impacts are presented as color graphics.
The graphics, embargoed for publication
Tuesday 12 June, are available at the GLOBIO web site http://www.globio.info
The full report is available at the same web site.
For More Information Please Contact:
Nick Nuttall, UNEP Media Officer,
Tel: 254 2 623084,
Mobile: 254 733 632755,
Fax: 254 2 623927,
e-mail: nick.nuttall@unep.org
Tore Brevik, UNEP Spokesman/Director of Communications and Public
Information,
Tel: 254 2 623292,
E-mail: tore.brevik@unep.org
Svein Tveitdal, Managing Director UNEP/GRID-Arendal,
Tel: +47 37 03 57 30,
Mobile +47 90 58 90 32,
E-mail Tveitdal@grida.no
Dr. Christian Nellemann, (project leader), Norwegian Institute for
Nature Research,
Tel: + 47 61 28 79 00,
Mobile+ 47 93 46 67 13 ,
E-mail: christian.nellemann@ninalil.ninaniku.no
Lars Kullerud ,Polar Program Manager UNEP/GRID-Arendal,
Mobile: + 47 90 87 00 99,
E-mail : kullerud@grida.no
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