Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action.
Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-systemmodel, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place.
We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.
The GLOBIO land use change module was used to combine the output on land use from the IMAGE model with the fine resolution land use data from GLC2000. These projections were the basis of this study.
Visconti, P., R.L. Pressey, D. Giorgini, L. Maiorano, M. Bakkenes, L. Boitani, R. Alkemade, A. Falcucci, F. Chiozza, C. Rondinini. 2011. Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 27 September 2011 vol. 366 no. 1578 2693-2702.