Scenarios

GLOBIO(-Aquatic) has been designed to evaluate the effects of possible future developments and policy options on the biodiversity of aquatic systems.

In this line of work, it is customary to cluster future developments in a ‘scenario’. A scenario is a plausible combination of developments in fundamental (indirect) drivers of change, such as demography, technology, labour productivity and political mood. In other words, the term ‘scenario’ is used as shorthand for a set of interrelated changes over time.

For global analyses GLOBIO(-Aquatic) uses scenarios such as the SRES scenarios developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), scenarios from the Global Environmental Outlooks of UNEP, scenarios developed for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and scenarios developed by OECD.

Sub-global scenarios

For sub-global analyses the global scenarios can be refined for specific areas and countries. Also simple, new scenarios can be designed. Information to underpin the scenario can be extracted from national statistical resources, development plans, visions, consultation of local experts etc.

share
Close