Pathways for agriculture and forestry to contribute to terrestrial biodiversity conservation: A global scenario-study
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency with contributions from Wageningen University and Tropenbos International
If the world stays on its current development path, the state of biodiversity will continue to decline. This is due to projected further increases in pressures, most prominently habitat loss and climate change. In order to reduce these pressures, biodiversity conservation and restoration, as well as sustainable resource use, needs to be an integral part of sustainable development strategies of primary production sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries and energy. This paper presents a model-based analysis of three alternative pathways described as Global Technology, Decentralized Solutions and Consumption Change to conserve biodiversity.
- Pathways pursue international biodiversity goals together with other environment related sustainability objectives.
- Objectives include feeding the world, limiting climate change, access to modern energy, and controlling air pollution.
- Pathways consist of different combinations of bio-physical measures, ecosystem management changes and behavioural changes.
- Pathways globally reduce MSA loss by 4.4-4.8% % in the coming decades compared to 9.5 % loss in the Trend.
- Types of biodiversity conserved in the pathways will be different.
- Potential for the agricultural and forestry sectors to contribute to this is estimated at 3.1-3.5 % avoided MSA loss.
- Changes needed in sectors to achieve this go well beyond current efforts to reduce their impact on biodiversity