Pathways for agriculture and forestry to contribute to terrestrial biodiversity conservation: A global scenario-study

Sep 3, 2018 | Papers

If the world stays on its current development path, the state of biodiversity will continue to decline.

This is due to projected further increases in pressures, most prominently habitat loss and climate change. In order to reduce these pressures, biodiversity conservation and restoration, as well as sustainable resource use, needs to be an integral part of sustainable development strategies of primary production sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries and energy. This paper presents a model-based analysis of three alternative pathways described as Global Technology, Decentralized Solutions and Consumption Change to conserve biodiversity.


  • Pathways pursue international biodiversity goals together with other environment related sustainability objectives.
  • Objectives include feeding the world, limiting climate change, access to modern energy, and controlling air pollution.
  • Pathways consist of different combinations of bio-physical measures, ecosystem management changes and behavioral changes.
  • Pathways globally reduce MSA loss by 4.4-4.8% % in the coming decades compared to 9.5 % loss in the Trend.
  • Types of biodiversity conserved in the pathways will be different.
  • Potential for the agricultural and forestry sectors to contribute to this is estimated at 3.1-3.5 % avoided MSA loss.
  • Changes needed in sectors to achieve this go well beyond current efforts to reduce their impact on biodiversity
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Marcel Kok, Rob Alkemade, Michel Bakkenes, Martha van Eerdt, Jan Janse, Maryia Mandryk, Tom Kram, Tanya Lazarova, Johan Meijer, Mark van Oorschot, Henk Westhoek, Roderick Zagt, Maurits van den Berg, Stefan van der Esch, Anne-Gerdien Prins, Detlef van Vuuren

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