Modelling ecosystem services across Europe for spatial conservation prioritization
The EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 aims to put biodiversity on the path to recovery by 2030. A key component of the Strategy is the development of a coherent Trans-European Nature Network (TEN-N), to increase the coherence of the existing network of Natura 2000 sites and
other nationally designated protected areas by addressing gaps in the coverage of priority habitats and species. The NaturaConnect project supports the design of a TEN-N, amongst others by designing and developing a future-proof blueprint through spatial conservation prioritisation. In this context, it is key to consider multifunctionality, that is, to ensure that the TEN-N addresses not just ecological representativeness but also the ability of nature to meet societal needs or demands through the provisioning of ecosystem services (ES).
The present deliverable of NaturaConnect project provides a set of ES layers aligned with present and potential future land and climate conditions, designed for use in spatial conservation prioritisation. We generated layers for a selection of regulating and cultural ES, with a focus on climate change mitigation (carbon storage and sequestration) and adaptation (e.g., improving soil retention considering expected increases in the magnitude and frequency of heavy rainfall events), food security (crop pollination, pest control), as well as the capacity of nature to improve people’s mental and physical health by offering opportunities for recreation and experiencing nature. We quantified all ES based on common input data with regard to land systems and climate, to ensure compatibility. Where possible and relevant, we considered ES supply, demand and flow separately.
The ES layers described in this report were primarily developed to support broad-scale spatial conservation or restoration prioritisation efforts, i.e., efforts to identify and rank planning units (in this case grid cells) based on features considered in need of conservation or restoration. In the NaturaConnect project, the ES layers will be used together with layers of other relevant variables, such as biodiversity features, habitat connectivity and the costs of conservation, to identify pan-European conservation priorities.
Authors
Aafke Schipper (PBL), Douglas Spencer (PBL), Liam Vezzani (PBL), Alexandra Marques (PBL), Clara Veerkamp (PBL), Anandi Sarita Namasivayam (VUA), Federico Riva (VUA), Peter Verburg (VUA), Tom Hackbarth (VUA), Marek Giergiczny (UW), Sebastian Scheuer (UBER), Manuel Wolff (UBER), Dagmar Haase (UBER), Louise O’Connor (IIASA), Sara Si-Moussi (CNRS) and Wilfried Thuiller (CNRS)



